Journal of Computational Social Science · vol. 6 · · sole author · open access
Centre Assessment Grades in 2020: A Natural Experiment for Investigating Bias in Teacher Judgements
Teacher judgements shape students' futures, from the move to secondary school to university applications. In 2020, COVID interruptions meant England's exams were cancelled and teachers awarded grades instead, creating a natural experiment. By training machine learning models on 2018–19 GCSE results to predict what 2020 students would likely have received in exams, the The study estimates the treatment effects of teacher assessment by students' demographic and socio-economic characteristics.
No category of student was marked down: teachers graded all above their likely exam results. Over-prediction varied, though, and intersecting three characteristics widened the gap between categories up to 3.4 times.
- GCSE results analysed
- 3.1M
- Students across 2018–2020
- 349k
- Presented at
- Royal Economic Society Annual Conference, Glasgow, 2023